One expert view on the top 3 potential scenarios today:
1. Overtime, Game Still In Play
COP decision(s) laying out the core elements of the global climate deal addressing the substantive issues in the two negotiating tracks and respecting the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. Includes aggregate and specific numbers for country commitments and financing, robust implementation mechanisms, and a clear mandate, process and timetable for translating all this into a legally binding agreement in 2010.
2.Collapse
Walk-out led by poor and vulnerable countries but potentially involving all of the G77+China. Possible triggers for this could include:
- Inadequate emissions reduction proposals by the US and other developed countries;
- Protest against perceived attempts by developed countries to kill the Kyoto Protocol;
- US/China stand-off over “legally binding” and “internationally verifiable”;
- Lack of progress on finance, especially for adaptation;
- Process isssues/transparency….
3. Replay Needed, No Steps Forward
General political declaration and/or COP decision capturing progress in some areas but postponing the “grand bargain” on mitigation, finance and legal form until 2010. Recognition that it is not yet possible to seal the deal due to lack of progress on US domestic legislation and on broader mitigation and finance commitments. Leaders recognize publicly that the outcome is a disappointment and avoid over-selling the outcome or pointing the finger of blame at others
Some more insider info coming in...
Some more detail on today and tomorrow
10 - 12 heads of state discussion
12 - 13 family photo for heads of state
13 - 14.45 lunch for heads of state
Expecting heads of state to make formal announcement - headlines only
Environment Ministers will tie up details through night with final deal coming out some time on Saturday
Reuters / AFP / AP / BBC running story that deal is about 2 degrees but no emissions target and $100bn but nothing on additionality or sources plus nothing on legal form of deal - we may have a comment on this now
Jeremy Hobbs, Executive Director for Oxfam International, said:
"The rumours around Copenhagen are of a political deal to keep us below 2°C but no-one is mentioning the scale of emission cuts needed to get there. There is more talk about a $100bn per year for developing countries by 2020 but no-one is talking about who's going to pay, whether the money will be new, or where it is coming from. Everything is left to play for on the final day. We need guaranteed action and more substance - leaders won't sell this deal on trust alone."
The team at www.AdoptaNegotiator.org are gathering around their computers, tuned into the UNFCCC webcast streams. We have one person inside today, 14 on the team are out... heads of state are gathering for the informal meeting in Bella starting soon.
The live webcast from UNFCCC is here:
www1.cop15.meta-fusion.comI'm going to go ahead and guess this Africa group press conference is not going to happen. #COP15
Can Obama Sign A Climate Treaty Without Congress?
tinyurl.comDumb q. RT @jhiskes: For all the useful NGO experts locked out of Bella Center, why does US Chamber of Commerce's Steve Eule get in? #cop15
RT @kate_sheppard: Can Obama Sign A Climate Treaty Without Congress?
tinyurl.comHere is Kate Sheppard's view on Obama's ability to sign a Climate Treaty w/o Congress
RT @jhiskes: For all the useful NGO experts locked out of Bella Center, why does US Chamber of Commerce's Steve Eule get in? #cop15
motherjones.comUnder Article II of the constitution, a president can sign an international treaty, but it must by ratified by two-thirds of the Senate before it becomes law. But there are also other types of international accords, like trade deals, that can be entered via a congressional-executive agreement, which requires only the approval of a simple majority in both houses of Congress. There’s no ironclad rule that determines which international pacts fall into which category. But neither route is easy. The last treaty to win ratification was the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty in 2002, which reduced the nuclear arsenals of Russia and US. Trade agreements are no picnic, either—the most recent pact approved was with Peru in 2007, while Bush administration deals with Colombia, South Korea and Panama are still languishing on Capitol Hill. When you consider that a domestic cap-and-trade bill has yet to win backing from the 60 senators required to even bring the measure up for a vote, the chances of securing 67 supporters for a major international treaty seem very slim indeed. RT @jessnewint: US head honchosaid only thing they like about Kyoto Protocol is emissions trading &offsetting, bc they invented them! #cop15
RT @edhenrycnn: Copenhagen update: Obama ripping up his schedule to try and broker a deal as climate talks appear to be in trouble #cop15
Just realized the Chinese press conf today between to US ones-- probably I'm reading too much into that #cop15
I don't know why every still thinks Obama can do anything-- this has been myth from the start! #cop15
RT @JustinGerdes: Besides Danish PM, Obama meeting with Britain, France, Russia: then, with EU, Colombia, Spain, Norway and China http:/ ...
Hi level multilateral Heads of State happening right now - time frozen inside Bella Center...#cop15
Awaiting plenary speeches at #COP15, incl. #Obama.
POTUS tells WH press pool that schedule is "no longer operational". Implies he's gonna stay to hammer out deal. #cop15
Transparency in Chinese:
bit.ly #cop15 Experts weigh in & say it's time to trust #China
Seems Obama and a group of 20+ leaders are in a meeting, not clear when that will end. I sort of want to take a nap while we wait. #COP15
Obama now in major mtg with 18 world leaders from Australia, UK, France, Denmark, Germany, Japan, China, Ethiopia....#COP15 #Copenhagen
Obama has scrapped his schedule for the day. He and other heads of state are in a meeting room trying to work out a final agreement #cop15
Scratch that, about 18 leaders. Statement on the nap still stands. #COP15
The rest of the Obama's 19: Bangladesh, Brazil, Russia, India, S. Africa, Mexico, Spain, South Korea, Norway, Colombia. #COP15 #Copenhagen
Obama meeting with Australia, UK, France, Denmark, Germany, Japan, China, Ethiopia ... "in hopes of saving a deal" #COP15
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